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Trade Under Strain: What the WTO's October 2026 Outlook Reveals

MER/26/N01 · Note · Meridian Research Team · 27 October 2026

The WTO has roughly doubled its 2026 forecast for merchandise trade growth, but the upgrade rests heavily on one driver, investment in artificial intelligence, while services trade and conflict-exposed regions are weakening. The headline resilience hides a narrowing base.

Key points

A stronger headline

In October 2026 the World Trade Organization published its Global Trade Outlook and Statistics – Update: October 2026. Its central message is one of resilience. Merchandise trade grew by 3.5% in volume terms in the first half of 2026 (and by 15% in US dollar value), and the WTO raised its full-year forecast to 3.9%, from 1.9% in March. It expects growth of 4.1% in 2027. Its forecast for global GDP growth is 2.6% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027 [1, pp. 4–6].

The WTO attributes the resilience to two forces. The first is adaptation. Based on customs statistics of leading importers, the WTO estimates that crude oil exports from the Middle East fell by roughly 24% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, and liquefied natural gas exports by around 47%. Increased shipments from other suppliers limited the global decline to around 6% for crude oil and around 1% for LNG. Between March and June 2026, global imports of nitrogenous fertilisers were only 2.8% lower than the average for the same period in 2023–2025, while imports of phosphatic fertilisers were 2.2% higher. Year-to-date through July 2026, global container throughput was still up 3.9% [1, pp. 17, 20].

The second force is artificial intelligence. Trade in AI-enabling goods grew by 67% in value terms in the first half of 2026, raising its share of world merchandise trade to 14.8%, and accounted for 47% of merchandise trade growth in value terms. Citing market research, the WTO expects global AI infrastructure spending to rise by a minimum of 30% in 2026 compared with 2025 [1, pp. 5, 14, 33].

A narrowing base

Taken together, these figures suggest that almost half of this year's goods-trade expansion depends on a single category of products. That is a source of strength while investment continues, and of exposure if it slows. The WTO notes that AI-enabling goods account for less than 15% of world trade but are now driving close to half of its growth [1, p. 33].

The regional forecasts show how uneven the picture is. Asia is expected to record the fastest merchandise export growth in 2026, at 9.9%, followed by North America (5.7%), Africa (5.6%) and South America (3.4%). European exports are projected to be broadly flat (-0.1%), while those of the Commonwealth of Independent States are forecast to contract by 3.9% and those of the Middle East by 17.2%. On the import side, a sharp contraction of 15.4% is expected in the Middle East [1, pp. 8–9].

Services take the hit

Services trade tells a less reassuring story. World commercial services trade grew by 14% year-on-year in US dollar terms in the first quarter of 2026, slowing to an estimated 10% in the second quarter. Travellers' expenditure abroad grew by around 5% year-on-year over March–June, down from 15% in the first quarter. Citing UN Tourism data, the WTO reports that international tourist arrivals rose by 2.0% in the first quarter and fell by 0.8% in the second [1, pp. 26, 28].

As a result, the WTO cut its 2026 forecast for services trade volume growth from 4.8% to 3.3%, while projecting a rebound to 6.4% in 2027. Services exports from the Middle East are projected to contract by 10.3%. Digitally delivered services have been an important offset: global computer services exports rose by 18% year-on-year in the first quarter and by 12% in the second [1, pp. 6, 11, 29].

The chokepoint backdrop

These shifts sit on top of maritime disruption that pre-dates this year. UNCTAD's Review of Maritime Transport 2025 found that tonnage transiting the Suez Canal in early May 2025 was still around 70% below the 2023 average. It notes that the Strait of Hormuz carries 11% of global maritime trade volume in metric tons, including 34% of seaborne oil exports [2, pp. 53–54]. In 2024, maritime trade volumes grew by 2.2%, while seaborne trade in ton-miles grew by 5.9%, close to three times as fast, as the average voyage haul lengthened [2, pp. 12, 21–22]. In other words, goods kept arriving, but over longer distances.

Assessment

The October outlook shows a trading system that bends rather than breaks. Supply chains have found alternative suppliers, ports and corridors. However, three cautions follow from the WTO's own figures:

  1. Concentration. With AI-related goods supplying nearly half of merchandise trade growth, the 2027 forecast is sensitive to the investment cycle in one sector.
  2. Divergence. The gap between Asia's projected merchandise export growth of 9.9% and the Middle East's projected contraction of 17.2% marks a widening split between regions positioned for the AI cycle and those exposed to conflict.
  3. Services fragility. Transport and travel, the sectors most dependent on open routes and hubs, are absorbing the shock that goods trade has largely avoided.

For policymakers, the lesson is that resilience at the global level can coexist with acute stress at the regional and sectoral levels. Headline growth figures should be read alongside their composition.

References

  1. World Trade Organization, Global Trade Outlook and Statistics – Update: October 2026, October 2026 (page numbers refer to the PDF). https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/gtos1026_e.pdf (accessed 25 October 2026).
  2. UNCTAD, Review of Maritime Transport 2025: Staying the course in turbulent waters, 2025 (page numbers refer to the PDF). https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2025_en.pdf (accessed 25 October 2026).