Plastics after Geneva: The Global Treaty Talks on the Road to INC-5.4

Negotiations on a global treaty to end plastic pollution were meant to finish by the end of 2024. They overran that deadline, and a further round in Geneva adjourned without agreement in August 2025. Under a new chair, governments are now working towards a fourth part of the fifth session (INC-5.4), planned within 13–24 March 2027. This paper sets out the scale of the problem, the state of the negotiating text and the issues that will decide whether a treaty is adopted.

Key points

• The world was expected to consume over 500 million tonnes of plastics in 2024; the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) says plastic waste could almost triple to around 1.2 billion tonnes by 2060 without further action [1].
• In 2019 only 9% of plastic waste was recycled, and 22% escaped waste management systems, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) [2].
• The INC-5.2 session in Geneva adjourned early on 15 August 2025 without consensus; a new chair, Ambassador Julio Cordano of Chile, was elected on 7 February 2026 [3; 4].
• The chair's informal Aid to Negotiations of 8 August 2026 leaves scope as a placeholder and brackets the treaty's decision-making rules [5].
• The chair says a treaty could be adopted at INC-5.4 in March 2027; as at 30 September 2026 no country had formally offered to host it [6; 7].

1. The problem

Plastic pollution crosses borders through rivers, oceans and trade. In 2022 the resumed fifth session of the UN Environment Assembly adopted resolution 5/14, which asked UNEP to convene an Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC) to develop a legally binding instrument "based on a comprehensive approach that addresses the full life cycle of plastic, including its production, design, and disposal" [1]. The committee was given the ambition of completing its work by the end of 2024 [4].

The phrase "full life cycle" has been at the centre of the main dispute. Whether a treaty should also limit how much plastic is produced, and whether it should regulate chemicals in plastics on health grounds, remains divisive [6].

2. The evidence

Scale. The OECD's Global Plastics Outlook found that world plastics production doubled between 2000 and 2019 to 460 million tonnes, and that plastic waste more than doubled to 353 million tonnes [2]. Recycled plastics accounted for only 6% of total production [2]. UNEP's more recent estimate is that over 500 million tonnes of plastics were expected to be consumed in 2024, much of which quickly becomes some 400 million tonnes of waste [1].

Where the waste goes. Of the plastic waste generated in 2019, 50% went to landfill, 19% was incinerated and 9% was recycled; the remaining 22% ended up in uncontrolled dumpsites, was burned in open pits or leaked into the environment [2]. The OECD estimated that 1.7 million tonnes flowed into the oceans in that year, and that about 30 million tonnes of plastic waste had already accumulated in seas and oceans [2].

A process behind schedule. The INC met in Punta del Este, Paris, Nairobi and Ottawa between 2022 and 2024, and the fifth session was held in parts in Busan (November–December 2024) and Geneva [1]. In Geneva, after ten days of negotiations, talks adjourned early on 15 August 2025 "without consensus on a text of the instrument" [3]. Following the resignation of the previous chair, a one-day session on 7 February 2026 elected Ambassador Cordano as chair, with no substantive negotiations [4; 8].

The new text. After informal meetings of heads of delegation in Nairobi (30 June–3 July 2026), the chair issued an Aid to Negotiations on 8 August 2026. He describes it as an informal reference document that "does not constitute a negotiated or agreed text" [5]. Its key features are:

• the objective protects "[human health and] the environment", with the health reference in brackets;
• scope is a placeholder listing four possible approaches;
• the list of articles contains no separate article on primary plastic production, while a bracketed preamble paragraph would recognise that current production and consumption are "unsustainable";
• the article on plastic products offers a choice between "[should]" and "[shall]" and between managing products or reducing and phasing them out; the criterion covering chemicals of concern is bracketed;
• two paragraphs on decision-making are bracketed, including voting by a three-fourths majority as a last resort; and
• the threshold for entry into force is left open at 50, 60 or 97 ratifications [5].

The chair states that discussions on how decisions are made under the instrument "remain an area of significant divergence" [5].

Bangkok and after. A second informal meeting in Bangkok on 27–30 September 2026 drew 427 delegates from 154 members of the committee [7]. The draft Bureau summary records that discussions were constructive but that some exchanges "repeated positions" from Nairobi. It also confirms the chair's plan to issue a second iteration of the text in November and to avoid live editing of text [7]. A third informal meeting is set for Nairobi on 28–30 January 2027, preceded by regional meetings [9]. UNEP's save-the-date notice places INC-5.4 within the period 13–24 March 2027 [9]. Nairobi is reserved as the venue if no host offer is made [7].

Positions. According to AFP, a majority of states support legally binding measures to curb plastic production, while "a smaller bloc of mostly oil-producing states", including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Russia, has pushed back and seeks a narrower focus on waste management [6]. The chair told AFP that positions were "much more closer than simply binary positions", and some countries were reported to be open to a text offering different pathways [6].

3. Analysis

The following assessments are Meridian analysis based on the evidence above.

First, the core disagreement has narrowed in form but not in substance. The Aid to Negotiations gives members a single structured reference text, but production, health and chemicals are still bracketed or absent [5]. These are the issues that AFP reports also sank earlier rounds [6].

Second, decision-making is the hidden test. A treaty in which major decisions require consensus would let a small group block future controls; one allowing a three-fourths vote would let the majority tighten rules later [5; 6]. Whichever rule is chosen, the treaty's long-term strength may depend more on it than on the initial obligations.

Third, the "pathways" idea is a possible landing zone with costs. A text that lets ambitious states adopt stricter measures while others focus on waste [6] could secure adoption. However, it would likely produce uneven rules for a product traded globally.

Fourth, logistics signal fragility. As at 30 September 2026 no formal host offer had been made, although the Secretariat wanted one by the end of October [7]. Together with the compressed calendar between January and March 2027 [7; 9], this leaves little time to settle a legally precise text without live editing.

4. Assessment

• A global plastics treaty is still possible in 2027, but the official text shows that the issues that blocked agreement in Busan and Geneva remain open [3; 5; 6].
• The second iteration of the Aid to Negotiations, due in November 2026, is the next real indicator of convergence [7].
• Even if adopted, the treaty's reach will depend on the entry-into-force threshold and on decision-making rules still in brackets [5].
• Indicators to watch: whether the November text includes production or chemicals provisions; a host offer for INC-5.4; the outcome of the Nairobi meeting in January 2027; and statements from the main producing states.

References

1. United Nations Environment Programme, "Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on Plastic Pollution". https://www.unep.org/inc-plastic-pollution (accessed 31 October 2026).
2. OECD, "Plastic pollution is growing relentlessly as waste management and recycling fall short, says OECD", press release on the Global Plastics Outlook, 22 February 2022. https://www.oecd.org/en/about/news/press-releases/2022/02/plastic-pollution-is-growing-relentlessly-as-waste-management-and-recycling-fall-short.html (accessed 31 October 2026).
3. United Nations Environment Programme, "Second Part of the Fifth Session" (INC-5.2), including the press release "Talks on global plastic pollution treaty adjourn without consensus", 15 August 2025. https://www.unep.org/inc-plastic-pollution/session-5.2 (accessed 31 October 2026).
4. United Nations Environment Programme, "New Chair elected to lead negotiations on global plastic pollution treaty", press release, 7 February 2026. https://www.unep.org/en/news-and-stories/press-release/new-chair-elected-lead-negotiations-global-plastic-pollution-treaty (accessed 31 October 2026).
5. Chair of the INC, "Aid to Negotiations", informal reference document with explanatory note, 8 August 2026. https://wedocs.unep.org/handle/20.500.11822/49807 (accessed 31 October 2026).
6. AFP, "Plastic treaty talks chair sees deal possible in March", France 24, 1 October 2026. https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20261001-plastic-treaty-talks-chair-sees-deal-possible-in-march (accessed 31 October 2026).
7. INC Secretariat, "Draft summary and action points: INC Bureau meeting, 30 September 2026", note by the Secretariat, 1 October 2026. https://wedocs.unep.org/rest/api/core/bitstreams/56c769eb-0652-45e1-9794-5760bee9b720/content (accessed 31 October 2026).
8. United Nations Environment Programme, "Third Part of the Fifth Session" (INC-5.3). https://www.unep.org/inc-plastic-pollution/session-5.3 (accessed 31 October 2026).
9. United Nations Environment Programme, "INC: Notifications". https://www.unep.org/en/inc-plastic-pollution/inc-notifications (accessed 31 October 2026).