Between December 2025 and February 2026, five European States left the 1997 Mine Ban Treaty, the first withdrawals in its history, and two of them are now preparing to produce or buy antipersonnel mines again. At the same time Lebanon has joined, recorded casualties remain at their highest level in years and Ukraine has declared a "suspension" that the treaty does not allow. With the Landmine Monitor 2026 due on 25 November and the States Parties meeting in Geneva from 30 November, this paper sets out what has changed and what it means for the norm.
Key points
- The depositary records 162 parties as at 2 November 2026, after withdrawals by Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania (effective 27 December 2025), Finland (10 January 2026) and Poland (20 February 2026), and Lebanon's accession on 1 May 2026 [1].
- Poland's Armaments Agency opened market consultations in March 2026 for 14.7 million antipersonnel mines; Finland plans domestic production, with the first new mines in 2027 [4].
- Landmine Monitor 2025 recorded at least 6,279 casualties of mines and explosive remnants of war in 2024, the highest figure since 2020; 90% of those whose status was known were civilians [2].
- Preliminary data for 2025 show more than 5,000 casualties in 40 countries, led by Syria (1,602) and Myanmar (745) [3].
- Ukraine, still a State Party, announced in July 2025 that it was suspending the treaty's operation; the Monitor calls this unlawful under the treaty [2; 5].
1. The treaty and the withdrawals
The Convention on the Prohibition of the Use, Stockpiling, Production and Transfer of Anti-Personnel Mines and on their Destruction was concluded in Oslo on 18 September 1997 and entered into force on 1 March 1999 [1]. Parties must stop using, stockpiling, producing and transferring antipersonnel mines, destroy their stocks within four years and clear mined areas within ten [2]. Under Article 20, a withdrawal takes effect six months after notification, but not while the withdrawing State is engaged in an armed conflict [5].
In March 2025 the defence ministers of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland jointly said they "unanimously recommend withdrawing", arguing that "the security situation in our region has fundamentally deteriorated" [6]. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania deposited notifications on 27 June 2025, Finland on 10 July and Poland on 20 August [1]. All five withdrawals are now in effect [1]. Before them the treaty had 166 parties, the most recent being the Marshall Islands (March 2025) and Tonga (June 2025) [2]. Lebanon's accession on 1 May 2026 brought the total to 162 [1]; the treaty entered into force for Lebanon on 1 November 2026 [3].
2. The evidence
Rearmament plans. The International Campaign to Ban Landmines (ICBL) reports that Poland's Armaments Agency began market consultations on 2 March 2026 for 14.7 million antipersonnel mines, which could make Poland one of the world's largest stockpilers [4]. Polish officials have indicated mines could be deployed along the eastern border in the event of a threat, and a senior defence official suggested surplus production could be supplied to allies, including Ukraine and the Baltic States [4]. Finland announced in January 2026 that it would acquire antipersonnel mines and manufacture them domestically, with the first available in 2027; a senior army officer has spoken of up to one million [4]. Latvia has said it plans a €28.3 million mine purchase under the EU's SAFE programme, without stating the type [4]. The ICBL notes that 22 EU member States remain bound by the treaty and argues that EU funds they approve should not pay for weapons they have banned [4].
Use and production elsewhere. Landmine Monitor 2025 found antipersonnel mines used by Myanmar and Russia, and by Iran and North Korea along their borders, between mid-2024 and October 2025 [2]. It lists 12 States outside the treaty that develop, produce or acquire antipersonnel mines; India, Myanmar, Russia and South Korea appear to be actively producing or developing them [2]. On the other side of the ledger, 94 States Parties have destroyed more than 55 million stockpiled mines [2].
Ukraine. Ukraine has not deposited a withdrawal. On 18 July 2025 it announced that it had suspended the operation of the treaty, citing Article 62 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties [5]. Because of the armed-conflict rule in Article 20, Ukraine remains legally bound for as long as the war continues [5]; the Monitor describes the attempted suspension as "unlawful under the treaty" [2].
The human cost. In 2024 at least 6,279 people were killed or injured by mines and explosive remnants of war (1,945 killed, 4,325 injured), in 52 countries and areas [2]. Myanmar recorded the most (2,029), followed by Syria (1,015), Afghanistan (624) and Ukraine (293) [2]. Children made up 46% of civilian casualties where age was recorded [2]. At least 57 States and other areas are contaminated by antipersonnel mines, and international funding for mine action fell by 5% to US$761 million in 2024 [2].
Preliminary Monitor data for 2025 cover 40 countries and record more than 5,000 casualties [3]. The figures are a minimum and will be revised [3].
Where civilian status was recorded, 95% of the 2025 casualties were civilians [3].
A parallel erosion. The sister Convention on Cluster Munitions lost its first State Party when Lithuania's withdrawal took effect on 6 March 2025 [7]. Cluster Munition Monitor 2026 recorded at least 1,063 cluster munition casualties in 2025, 927 of them in Ukraine, and use by Iran, Myanmar, Russia, Thailand and Ukraine during the reporting period [7].
3. Analysis
The following assessments are Meridian analysis based on the evidence above.
First, the precedent is now set. These are the first withdrawals in the treaty's history [5], and five took effect within two months of one another [1]. The norm now faces open contestation from former parties, not only from States that never joined.
Second, withdrawal is not yet use. The ICBL stresses that production, transfer and use remain separate decisions that Poland and Finland can still reconsider [4]. States that withdraw also remain subject to the rules on mine use in Protocol II and Amended Protocol II of the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons, which require precautions, marking and removal but do not ban the weapon [5]. How the new stocks are designed, marked and controlled will matter as much as their size.
Third, the scale of the Polish plan matters beyond Poland. A procurement of 14.7 million mines [4] is more than a quarter of everything States Parties have destroyed under the treaty [2]. Proposed transfers to allies, including a State Party, would test Article 1 obligations for others [4].
Fourth, universalisation has not stopped. Lebanon's accession [1] shows the treaty still attracts members in conflict-affected regions, which weakens the argument that the ban is a peacetime luxury.
4. Assessment
- Further withdrawals in the coming year cannot be ruled out, but none has been notified as at 2 November 2026 [1].
- The Twenty-Third Meeting of the States Parties in Geneva (30 November – 4 December 2026), presided over by Zambia, is the first since all five withdrawals took effect; its language on the departures and on Ukraine will be closely watched [8].
- Indicators to watch: Landmine Monitor 2026 on 25 November [4]; Polish and Finnish contracts and production dates; any EU-funded mine purchases; and casualty trends in Ukraine and Myanmar.
References
- United Nations Treaty Collection, Chapter XXVI.5, status of the Convention on the Prohibition of the Use, Stockpiling, Production and Transfer of Anti-Personnel Mines and on their Destruction, as at 2 November 2026. https://treaties.un.org/Pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXVI-5&chapter=26&clang=_en (accessed 2 November 2026).
- Landmine and Cluster Munition Monitor, Landmine Monitor 2025 (online reader), ICBL-CMC, 2025. https://the-monitor.org/online-reader/landmine-monitor-2025 (accessed 2 November 2026).
- Landmine and Cluster Munition Monitor, "Preliminary Global Casualty Data for 2025", and ICBL-CMC press release, Geneva, 16 June 2026. https://icblcmc.org/our-impact/preliminary-casualty-data-june-2025 and https://icblcmc.org/assets/Resource-Hub/2026/Preliminary-Casualty-Data_June-2026_Web.pdf (accessed 2 November 2026).
- ICBL-CMC, "ICBL Calls on Global Leaders to Prevent Renewed Production of Antipersonnel Mines by Poland and Finland", Geneva, 12 October 2026. https://icblcmc.org/our-impact/icbl-calls-on-global-leaders-to-prevent-renewed-production-of-antipersonnel-mines-by-poland-and-finland (accessed 2 November 2026).
- Library of Parliament (Canada), "The Future of the Ottawa Treaty", Publication No. 2025-20-E. https://lop.parl.ca/sites/PublicWebsite/default/en_CA/ResearchPublications/202520E (accessed 2 November 2026).
- Landmine and Cluster Munition Monitor, "Poland: Mine Ban Policy" (country profile). https://the-monitor.org/country-profile/poland/mine-ban-policy (accessed 2 November 2026).
- Landmine and Cluster Munition Monitor, "Cluster Munition Monitor 2026: Major Findings", 2026. https://icblcmc.org/assets/reports/Cluster-Munition-Monitors/CMM2026/Downloads/CMM2026_MajorFindings_EN.pdf (accessed 2 November 2026).
- Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Convention Implementation Support Unit, "Twenty-Third Meeting of the States Parties". https://www.apminebanconvention.org/en/meetings-of-the-states-parties/23msp (accessed 2 November 2026).