Hunger in a Year of Shocks: Food Crises, Prices and Funding in 2026

The 2026 Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC) found that 266 million people in 47 countries and territories faced high levels of acute food insecurity in 2025, and that famine was confirmed in two contexts in the same year for the first time in the report's history. Its mid-year update, with data to 31 August 2026, shows fewer people in the most extreme conditions but sharp deteriorations elsewhere, and warns that the conflict in the Middle East, a strengthening El Niño and falling aid are likely to make late 2026 and 2027 harder. This paper reviews the evidence and the risks ahead.

Key points

• In 2025, 266 million people in 47 countries and territories, 22.9% of the population analysed, faced Crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above); the share has nearly doubled since 2016 [1; 2].
• About 327,000 people were expected to face Catastrophe (Phase 5) at some point in 2026, down from 1.4 million in 2025, mainly because of reduced conflict and improved humanitarian access in the Gaza Strip and Sudan [3].
• Of 33 countries and territories with comparable data, 17 improved and 15 deteriorated; Nigeria recorded the largest increase, to 36.3 million people in Phase 3 or above [3].
• World food commodity prices rose 5.8% year on year in September 2026, with cereals up 17.2%, as disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea combined with weather shocks [5].
• Net official development assistance (ODA) from Development Assistance Committee (DAC) countries is projected to fall by a further 6.9% in 2026, to USD 152 billion, the lowest level since 2014 [3].

1. The problem

The GRFC is produced by the Global Network Against Food Crises and partners, using the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), the Cadre Harmonisé (CH) and comparable sources. Phase 3 (Crisis) and above indicates a need for urgent action; in Phase 5 (Catastrophe), households have an extreme lack of food even after fully using their coping strategies [1].

The central question for 2026 is whether this year's localised improvements can survive three simultaneous pressures: higher energy, fertiliser and transport costs linked to the Middle East conflict and Black Sea shipping disruption; an El Niño expected to strengthen into early 2027; and a further contraction of aid [3; 5]. Funding, displacement and development assistance have been covered in earlier Meridian papers (MER/26/D03 and MER/26/D05); this paper concentrates on food security outcomes.

2. The evidence

The 2025 baseline. The GRFC 2026, released on 24 April, counted 266 million people in Phase 3 or above in 2025, 22.9% of the population analysed, against 22.7% across 53 countries in 2024 [1; 2]. The lower total than in 2024 (296 million) reflects fewer countries covered, not an improvement [1]. About 1.4 million people faced Catastrophe across six countries and territories, more than nine times the roughly 155,000 people in two countries in 2016, and more than 39 million faced Emergency (Phase 4) [1]. Famine was confirmed in Gaza Governorate and in parts of Sudan, the first time the report recorded confirmed famine in two contexts in one year [2]. An estimated 35.5 million children were acutely malnourished [1; 2]. Ten countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Myanmar, Nigeria, Pakistan, South Sudan, Sudan, Syria and Yemen) accounted for two-thirds of the total [2].

The mid-year picture. The mid-year update, published in September, has 2026 data for 39 of the 47 countries and territories, of which 33 are directly comparable with 2025 [3; 4]. Seventeen improved, with decreases in parts of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Malawi, Myanmar, parts of Sudan, Zambia and Zimbabwe; 15 deteriorated, particularly Bangladesh, Kenya, Madagascar, Nigeria and Somalia [3]. In Nigeria, nearly 5 million more people were in Phase 3 or above than in 2025; in the northern states the number in Emergency rose from 1.2 million to 2.1 million, and 10,300 people in Borno state were in Catastrophe, up from none [3]. In Sudan the number in Phase 3 or above fell from 24.6 million to 19.5 million, though this was still 41% of the population analysed [3].

The extreme end. Around 327,000 people were expected to face Catastrophe at some point in 2026, in the Gaza Strip, Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan and Yemen [3]. Sudan accounts for the largest share, with 200,000 people projected in Phase 5 between June and September 2026 [3]. A risk of Famine was identified at some point in 2026 in Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and the Gaza Strip (through April); the first three still faced that risk at mid-year [3; 4]. In the Gaza Strip, the share of the population in Phase 3 or above fell from 77% in early 2026 to 59% in April–June, but is projected to rise to 67% for the rest of the year [3].

Prices and supply. The update reports that the Middle East conflict has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a major route for oil, liquefied natural gas and fertilisers [3]. Brent crude fell from a peak of USD 114 in May to USD 73 in June, returned to USD 100 in July and stood at USD 94 at the end of August [3]. Eleven GRFC countries, including Sudan, South Sudan and Haiti, had food inflation of more than 15% year on year in 2026, up from seven in December 2025 [3]. Since then, the FAO Food Price Index has risen to 136.0 points in September 2026, up 1.5% on August and 5.8% on a year earlier; the cereal index rose 5.1% in the month and was 17.2% higher than a year earlier [5]. FAO now forecasts global cereal production in 2026 to fall 2.1% to 2,979 million tonnes, still the second-largest harvest on record, and cereal trade to fall 3.5% [5].

Funding. Beyond the fall in DAC ODA, humanitarian ODA is projected to fall by 40.3% between 2024 and 2026, and food aid by 44.5% (USD 2.6 billion) [3]. Requirements under the Global Humanitarian Overview were reduced to USD 33.65 billion in 2026, with overall coverage at 31.5% at the end of June and coverage of prioritised requirements at 42.3% [3]. Eighteen GRFC countries and territories had no acute food insecurity data in 2025, at least five of them because of limited funding [3].

3. Analysis

The following assessments are Meridian analysis based on the evidence above.

First, improvement at the extreme end is real but conditional. The fall in Phase 5 numbers from 1.4 million to about 327,000 is attributed mainly to reduced conflict and better humanitarian access in the Gaza Strip and Sudan [3]. These are the conditions most exposed to reversal. The projected return to deterioration in the Gaza Strip later in 2026 [3] shows how quickly that can happen.

Second, the geography of acute hunger is widening beyond conflict zones. The largest deterioration was in Nigeria, and the others include Bangladesh, Kenya and Madagascar, where economic and climatic factors play a large role [3]. A crisis map that is no longer centred only on a handful of wars is harder to address through ceasefires and access agreements alone.

Third, the price channel is arriving with a lag. The update states that 17 of the 39 country analyses were produced before the Middle East conflict and do not yet reflect it [3]. FAO's September data show international cereal prices well above last year's level, and its chief economist warns that, if sustained, the pressures will pass through to consumer food prices, especially in food- and energy-importing countries [5]. The update also expects the effects of disrupted fertiliser supplies to become more pronounced in 2027, across subsequent production cycles [3]. On this evidence, the mid-year figures are more likely to understate than overstate the pressures building for 2027.

Fourth, less money also means less visibility. Funding cuts are reducing both assistance and the data used to target it. When 18 countries in a crisis-focused report lack data [3], headline totals become less comparable from year to year, as the GRFC's own caveat on the 2025 total shows [1].

4. Assessment

• Acute food insecurity remains near record levels as a share of the population analysed, even though the number of people in Catastrophe fell sharply in 2026 [1; 3].
• The main risks for late 2026 and 2027 are additive: energy, fertiliser and shipping costs, El Niño and falling aid [3; 5].
• Indicators to watch: the next FAO–WFP Hunger Hotspots report, due in late November 2026 for December 2026 to May 2027 [3]; new IPC analyses for Sudan, South Sudan and Somalia; monthly FAO Food Price Index readings; and final 2026 humanitarian funding totals.

References

1. FAO, WFP and Global Network Against Food Crises, 2026 Global Report on Food Crises – Joint analysis for better decisions, Rome, 2026, DOI 10.4060/cd9424en (CC BY 4.0). https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000174714/download/ (accessed 29 October 2026).
2. World Food Programme et al., "Acute food insecurity and malnutrition remain alarmingly high as crises deepen, UN, EU and partners warn in new report", joint news release, 24 April 2026. https://www.wfp.org/news/acute-food-insecurity-and-malnutrition-remain-alarmingly-high-crises-deepen-un-eu-and-partners (accessed 29 October 2026).
3. FAO, WFP and Global Network Against Food Crises, 2026 Global Report on Food Crises – Mid-year Update, Rome, 2026, DOI 10.4060/ce1690en (CC BY 4.0). https://www.foodsecurityportal.org/_assets/sites/default/files/2026-10/ce1690en.pdf (accessed 29 October 2026).
4. European Commission Joint Research Centre, "Food crises across the globe: acute food insecurity remains alarmingly high", 21 September 2026. https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-news-and-updates/food-crises-across-globe-acute-food-insecurity-remains-alarmingly-high-2026-09-21_en (accessed 29 October 2026).
5. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, "FAO Food Price Index rises in September amid weather concerns and transport disruptions", news release, 2 October 2026. https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/fao-food-price-index-rises-in-september-amid-weather-concerns-and-transport-disruptions/en (accessed 29 October 2026).